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Demand-Based Assessment of Workforce Requirements for Orthopaedic Services*
PAUL P. LEE, M.D., J.D.†; CATHERINE A. JACKSON, PH.D.‡; DANIEL A. RELLES, PH.D.‡, SANTA MONICA, CALIFORNIA
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Investigation performed at RAND, Health Program, Santa Monica
J Bone Joint Surg Am, 1998 Mar 01;80(3):313-26
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Abstract

On the basis of an analysis of the supply of and demand for orthopaedic surgeons, we projected that there will be 21,134 full-time-equivalent orthopaedists in the year 2010 if training continues at current levels. We estimated a demand-based requirement of 17,012 full-time-equivalent orthopaedic surgeons, indicating a surplus of 4122 full-time equivalents. In terms of orthopaedist-to-population ratios, we estimated that there will be 7.5 full-time-equivalent orthopaedists per 100,000 population in 2010 compared with a demand-based requirement of 6.0 full-time equivalents. However, we did not include estimates of the demand for orthopaedic surgeons as assistants in the operating room in our model. If an assistant orthopaedic surgeon is required for all procedures, an additional 3906 full-time-equivalent orthopaedists would be demanded, thus eliminating the surplus. The demand for an assistant orthopaedic surgeon in only half of the procedures would still lead to a sizable reduction in the surplus.

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    Accreditation Statement
    These activities have been planned and implemented in accordance with the Essential Areas and policies of the Accreditation Council for Continuing Medical Education (ACCME) through the joint sponsorship of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons and The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Inc. The American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons is accredited by the ACCME to provide continuing medical education for physicians.
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