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Scientific Articles   |    
Projections of Primary and Revision Hip and Knee Arthroplasty in the United States from 2005 to 2030
Steven Kurtz, PhD1; Kevin Ong, PhD1; Edmund Lau, MS2; Fionna Mowat, PhD2; Michael Halpern, MPH, MD, PhD3
1 Exponent Inc., 3401 Market Street, Suite 300, Philadelphia, PA 19104. E-mail address for K. Ong: kong@exponent.com
2 Exponent Inc., 149 Commonwealth Drive, Menlo Park, CA 94025
3 Exponent Inc., 1800 Diagonal Road, Suite 355, Alexandria, VA 22314
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Disclosure: The authors did not receive any outside funding or grants in support of their research for or preparation of this work. Neither they nor a member of their immediate families received payments or other benefits or a commitment or agreement to provide such benefits from a commercial entity. No commercial entity paid or directed, or agreed to pay or direct, any benefits to any research fund, foundation, division, center, clinical practice, or other charitable or nonprofit organization with which the authors, or a member of their immediate families, are affiliated or associated.
Investigation performed at Exponent Inc., Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated
J Bone Joint Surg Am, 2007 Apr 01;89(4):780-785. doi: 10.2106/JBJS.F.00222
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Abstract

Background: Over the past decade, there has been an increase in the number of revision total hip and knee arthroplasties performed in the United States. The purpose of this study was to formulate projections for the number of primary and revision total hip and knee arthroplasties that will be performed in the United States through 2030.

Methods: The Nationwide Inpatient Sample (1990 to 2003) was used in conjunction with United States Census Bureau data to quantify primary and revision arthroplasty rates as a function of age, gender, race and/or ethnicity, and census region. Projections were performed with use of Poisson regression on historical procedure rates in combination with population projections from 2005 to 2030.

Results: By 2030, the demand for primary total hip arthroplasties is estimated to grow by 174% to 572,000. The demand for primary total knee arthroplasties is projected to grow by 673% to 3.48 million procedures. The demand for hip revision procedures is projected to double by the year 2026, while the demand for knee revisions is expected to double by 2015. Although hip revisions are currently more frequently performed than knee revisions, the demand for knee revisions is expected to surpass the demand for hip revisions after 2007. Overall, total hip and total knee revisions are projected to grow by 137% and 601%, respectively, between 2005 and 2030.

Conclusions: These large projected increases in demand for total hip and knee arthroplasties provide a quantitative basis for future policy decisions related to the numbers of orthopaedic surgeons needed to perform these procedures and the deployment of appropriate resources to serve this need.

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    Accreditation Statement
    These activities have been planned and implemented in accordance with the Essential Areas and policies of the Accreditation Council for Continuing Medical Education (ACCME) through the joint sponsorship of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons and The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Inc. The American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons is accredited by the ACCME to provide continuing medical education for physicians.
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