The Orthopaedic Forum   |    
Orthopaedics in 2020: Predictors of Musculoskeletal Need*
Michael J. Dunbar, MD, FRCSC, PhD1; Andrew Howard, MD, FRCSC, MSc2; Earl R. Bogoch, MD, FRCSC3; Javad Parvizi, MD, FRCS4; Hans J. Kreder, MD5
1 Halifax Infirmary Hospital, 1796 Summer Street, Suite 4822, Halifax, NS B3H 3A7, Canada. E-mail address for M.J. Dunbar: Michael.dunbar@dal.ca
2 Hospital for Sick Children, Room S-107, 555 University Avenue, Toronto, ON M5G 1X8, Canada
3 St. Michael's Hospital, Suite 800, 55 Queen Street East, Toronto, ON M5C 1R6, Canada
4 Department of Surgery, The Rothman Institute, 925 Chestnut Street, 5th Floor, Philadelphia, PA 19107
5 Division of Orthopaedic Surgery, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, 2075 Bayview Avenue—MG 365, Toronto, ON M4N 3M5, Canada
View Disclosures and Other Information
This report is based on a symposium presented at the Combined Meeting of the American Orthopaedic Association (AOA) and the Canadian Orthopaedic Association (COA) on June 5, 2008, in Quebec City, Quebec, Canada.
Disclosure: In support of their research for or preparation of this work, one or more of the authors received, in any one year, outside funding or grants in excess of $10,000 from Proctor and Gamble Pharmaceuticals Incorporated and Merck Frosst Canada Incorporated. Neither they nor a member of their immediate families received payments or other benefits or a commitment or agreement to provide such benefits from a commercial entity. No commercial entity paid or directed, or agreed to pay or direct, any benefits to any research fund, foundation, division, center, clinical practice, or other charitable or nonprofit organization with which the authors, or a member of their immediate families, are affiliated or associated.

The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Inc.
J Bone Joint Surg Am, 2009 Sep 01;91(9):2276-2286. doi: 10.2106/JBJS.H.01521
5 Recommendations (Recommend) | 3 Comments | Saved by 3 Users Save Case


Although the year 2020 is just over a decade away, changes in population demographics as well as advancements in knowledge, techniques, and treatments will likely lead to substantial changes in the delivery of orthopaedic care. One specific driver of the projected change is the fact that the North American population is aging. Projections show that, by 2020, 16.3% of the U.S. population and approximately 25% of the Canadian population will be sixty-five years of age or older, double the current number1,2. This has led to projections for an increased incidence and prevalence of age-related musculoskeletal conditions, such as fragility fractures and osteoarthritis3-8. Concurrent with the projections showing an increased need for orthopaedic services in 2020 is a projection showing a decreased number of full-time-equivalent orthopaedic surgeons, mostly due to retirement9.
Figures in this Article

    First Page Preview

    View Large
    First page PDF preview
    Sign In to Your Personal ProfileSign In To Access Full Content
    Not a Subscriber?
    Get online access for 30 days for $35
    New to JBJS?
    Sign up for a full subscription to both the print and online editions
    Register for a FREE limited account to get full access to all CME activities, to comment on public articles, or to sign up for alerts.
    Register for a FREE limited account to get full access to all CME activities
    Have a subscription to the print edition?
    Current subscribers to The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery in either the print or quarterly DVD formats receive free online access to JBJS.org.
    Forgot your password?
    Enter your username and email address. We'll send you a reminder to the email address on record.

    Forgot your username or need assistance? Please contact customer service at subs@jbjs.org. If your access is provided
    by your institution, please contact you librarian or administrator for username and password information. Institutional
    administrators, to reset your institution's master username or password, please contact subs@jbjs.org


    Accreditation Statement
    These activities have been planned and implemented in accordance with the Essential Areas and policies of the Accreditation Council for Continuing Medical Education (ACCME) through the joint sponsorship of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons and The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Inc. The American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons is accredited by the ACCME to provide continuing medical education for physicians.
    CME Activities Associated with This Article
    Submit a Comment
    Please read the other comments before you post yours. Contributors must reveal any conflict of interest.
    Comments are moderated and will appear on the site at the discretion of JBJS editorial staff.

    * = Required Field
    (if multiple authors, separate names by comma)
    Example: John Doe

    Related Content
    The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery
    JBJS Case Connector
    Topic Collections
    Related Audio and Videos
    PubMed Articles
    Clinical Trials
    Readers of This Also Read...
    JBJS Jobs
    W. Virginia - Charleston Area Medical Center
    District of Columbia (DC) - Children's National Medical Center
    New York - Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
    S. Carolina - Department of Orthopaedic Surgery Medical Univerity of South Carlonina