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The Orthopaedic Forum   |    
Orthopaedics in 2020: Predictors of Musculoskeletal Need*
Michael J. Dunbar, MD, FRCSC, PhD1; Andrew Howard, MD, FRCSC, MSc2; Earl R. Bogoch, MD, FRCSC3; Javad Parvizi, MD, FRCS4; Hans J. Kreder, MD5
1 Halifax Infirmary Hospital, 1796 Summer Street, Suite 4822, Halifax, NS B3H 3A7, Canada. E-mail address for M.J. Dunbar: Michael.dunbar@dal.ca
2 Hospital for Sick Children, Room S-107, 555 University Avenue, Toronto, ON M5G 1X8, Canada
3 St. Michael's Hospital, Suite 800, 55 Queen Street East, Toronto, ON M5C 1R6, Canada
4 Department of Surgery, The Rothman Institute, 925 Chestnut Street, 5th Floor, Philadelphia, PA 19107
5 Division of Orthopaedic Surgery, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, 2075 Bayview Avenue—MG 365, Toronto, ON M4N 3M5, Canada
View Disclosures and Other Information
This report is based on a symposium presented at the Combined Meeting of the American Orthopaedic Association (AOA) and the Canadian Orthopaedic Association (COA) on June 5, 2008, in Quebec City, Quebec, Canada.
Disclosure: In support of their research for or preparation of this work, one or more of the authors received, in any one year, outside funding or grants in excess of $10,000 from Proctor and Gamble Pharmaceuticals Incorporated and Merck Frosst Canada Incorporated. Neither they nor a member of their immediate families received payments or other benefits or a commitment or agreement to provide such benefits from a commercial entity. No commercial entity paid or directed, or agreed to pay or direct, any benefits to any research fund, foundation, division, center, clinical practice, or other charitable or nonprofit organization with which the authors, or a member of their immediate families, are affiliated or associated.

The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Inc.
J Bone Joint Surg Am, 2009 Sep 01;91(9):2276-2286. doi: 10.2106/JBJS.H.01521
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Extract

Although the year 2020 is just over a decade away, changes in population demographics as well as advancements in knowledge, techniques, and treatments will likely lead to substantial changes in the delivery of orthopaedic care. One specific driver of the projected change is the fact that the North American population is aging. Projections show that, by 2020, 16.3% of the U.S. population and approximately 25% of the Canadian population will be sixty-five years of age or older, double the current number1,2. This has led to projections for an increased incidence and prevalence of age-related musculoskeletal conditions, such as fragility fractures and osteoarthritis3-8. Concurrent with the projections showing an increased need for orthopaedic services in 2020 is a projection showing a decreased number of full-time-equivalent orthopaedic surgeons, mostly due to retirement9.
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